Working Paper #002 - Concentration at the Top: Labor Access and Agricultural Production in the United States

Research Abstract: The rapid expansion of the H2A temporary agricultural visa program has coincided with declining domestic farm employment and persistent specialization in U.S. agricultural produc- tion. This paper examines how the structure of labor access rather than the level of labor use is related to patterns of agricultural concentration across U.S. states. Using newly constructed labor and commodity concentration measures and state level panel data from 2015 to 2024, the analysis documents systematic comovement between employer concentration in the H2A program and concentration in agricultural production. The results show that this relationship is highly asymmetric: extreme commodity dominance is associated with concentration of H2A employment at the single largest employer, but broader measures of labor and commodity con- centration display no systematic relationship. At the same time, labor concentration declines as the scale of H2A employment increases, suggesting that dominance weakens as participation expands. Together, these findings indicate that labor and production concentration are linked primarily in thin, highly specialized markets, refining how labor market structure in agriculture should be understood.